Estimating the Effect of Social Distancing Interventions on COVID-19 in the United States.

Since its global emergence in 2020, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused multiple epidemics in the United States. When medical treatments for the virus were still emerging and a vaccine was not yet available, state and local governments sought to limit its spread by enacting various social-distancing interventions, such as school closures and lockdowns; however, the effectiveness of these interventions was unknown. We applied an established, semimechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model of these interventions to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 from Europe to the United States, using case fatalities from February 29, 2020, up to April 25, 2020, when some states began reversing their interventions. We estimated the effects of interventions across all states, contrasted the estimated reproduction numbers before and after lockdown for each state, and contrasted the predicted number of future fatalities with the actual number of fatalities as a check of the model's validity. Overall, school closures and lockdowns were the only interventions modeled that had a reliable impact on the time-varying reproduction number, and lockdown appears to have played a key role in reducing that number to below 1.0. We conclude that reversal of lockdown without implementation of additional, equally effective interventions will enable continued, sustained transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States.

SKOPE-IT (Shareable Knowledge Objects as Portable Intelligent Tutors): overlaying natural language tutoring on an adaptive learning system for mathematics.

BACKGROUND: This study investigated learning outcomes and user perceptions from interactions with a hybrid intelligent tutoring system created by combining the AutoTutor conversational tutoring system with the Assessment and Learning in Knowledge Spaces (ALEKS) adaptive learning system for mathematics. This hybrid intelligent tutoring system (ITS) uses a service-oriented architecture to combine these two web-based systems. Self-explanation tutoring dialogs were used to talk students through step-by-step worked examples to algebra problems. These worked examples presented an isomorphic problem to the preceding algebra problem that the student could not solve in the adaptive learning system. RESULTS: Due to crossover issues between conditions, experimental versus control condition assignment did not show significant differences in learning gains. However, strong dose-dependent learning gains were observed that could not be otherwise explained by either initial mastery or time-on-task. User perceptions of the dialog-based tutoring were mixed, and survey results indicate that this may be due to the pacing of dialog-based tutoring using voice, students judging the agents based on their own performance (i.e., the quality of their answers to agent questions), and the students' expectations about mathematics pedagogy (i.e., expecting to solving problems rather than talking about concepts). Across all users, learning was most strongly influenced by time spent studying, which correlated with students' self-reported tendencies toward effort avoidance, effective study habits, and beliefs about their ability to improve in mathematics with effort. CONCLUSIONS: Integrating multiple adaptive tutoring systems with complementary strengths shows some potential to improve learning. However, managing learner expectations during transitions between systems remains an open research area. Finally, while personalized adaptation can improve learning efficiency, effort and time-on-task for learning remains a dominant factor that must be considered by interventions.

ElectronixTutor: an intelligent tutoring system with multiple learning resources for electronics.

BACKGROUND: The Office of Naval Research (ONR) organized a STEM Challenge initiative to explore how intelligent tutoring systems (ITSs) can be developed in a reasonable amount of time to help students learn STEM topics. This competitive initiative sponsored four teams that separately developed systems that covered topics in mathematics, electronics, and dynamical systems. After the teams shared their progress at the conclusion of an 18-month period, the ONR decided to fund a joint applied project in the Navy that integrated those systems on the subject matter of electronic circuits. The University of Memphis took the lead in integrating these systems in an intelligent tutoring system called ElectronixTutor. This article describes the architecture of ElectronixTutor, the learning resources that feed into it, and the empirical findings that support the effectiveness of its constituent ITS learning resources. RESULTS: A fully integrated ElectronixTutor was developed that included several intelligent learning resources (AutoTutor, Dragoon, LearnForm, ASSISTments, BEETLE-II) as well as texts and videos. The architecture includes a student model that has (a) a common set of knowledge components on electronic circuits to which individual learning resources contribute and (b) a record of student performance on the knowledge components as well as a set of cognitive and non-cognitive attributes. There is a recommender system that uses the student model to guide the student on a small set of sensible next steps in their training. The individual components of ElectronixTutor have shown learning gains in previous decades of research. CONCLUSIONS: The ElectronixTutor system successfully combines multiple empirically based components into one system to teach a STEM topic (electronics) to students. A prototype of this intelligent tutoring system has been developed and is currently being tested. ElectronixTutor is unique in its assembling a group of well-tested intelligent tutoring systems into a single integrated learning environment.

Motion Tracker: Camera-Based Monitoring of Bodily Movements Using Motion Silhouettes.

Researchers in the cognitive and affective sciences investigate how thoughts and feelings are reflected in the bodily response systems including peripheral physiology, facial features, and body movements. One specific question along this line of research is how cognition and affect are manifested in the dynamics of general body movements. Progress in this area can be accelerated by inexpensive, non-intrusive, portable, scalable, and easy to calibrate movement tracking systems. Towards this end, this paper presents and validates Motion Tracker, a simple yet effective software program that uses established computer vision techniques to estimate the amount a person moves from a video of the person engaged in a task (available for download from http://jakory.com/motion-tracker/). The system works with any commercially available camera and with existing videos, thereby affording inexpensive, non-intrusive, and potentially portable and scalable estimation of body movement. Strong between-subject correlations were obtained between Motion Tracker's estimates of movement and body movements recorded from the seat (r =.720) and back (r = .695 for participants with higher back movement) of a chair affixed with pressure-sensors while completing a 32-minute computerized task (Study 1). Within-subject cross-correlations were also strong for both the seat (r =.606) and back (r = .507). In Study 2, between-subject correlations between Motion Tracker's movement estimates and movements recorded from an accelerometer worn on the wrist were also strong (rs = .801, .679, and .681) while people performed three brief actions (e.g., waving). Finally, in Study 3 the within-subject cross-correlation was high (r = .855) when Motion Tracker's estimates were correlated with the movement of a person's head as tracked with a Kinect while the person was seated at a desk (Study 3). Best-practice recommendations, limitations, and planned extensions of the system are discussed.